NOAA Releases Annual Winter Outlook for 2024-2025 Season: NPR

According to a report released Thursday, federal forecasters expect a La Niña climate pattern to develop in the coming months — providing a possible picture of what the weather will look like across the United States this winter.

The Annual Winter Outlook A report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center describes a 60% chance of a La Niña event unfolding by the end of November. La Niña is characterized by normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific, which generally leads to drier and warmer conditions in the southern hemisphere and cooler, wetter weather in the northern hemisphere of the continental United States.

This year’s La Nina is expected to be weaker and shorter in duration than previous years, making it a little harder to predict months in advance.

What federal forecasters know so far is that large swaths of the South and East Coast are looking to see warmer-than-average temperatures this winter. According to NOAA, this is especially true for Texas and states along the Gulf Coast, such as Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperatures shows the greatest potential for cooler-than-average conditions in the U.S. Pacific Northwest.

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Meanwhile, the odds of cool-normal conditions are high from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. These include the states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, western Minnesota, and northern Wyoming.

Parts of the Pacific Northwest and parts of Montana and Wyoming are also likely to see wetter-than-average conditions in the coming months. Areas in the Great Lakes region are also at risk of wetter-than-average conditions, with these probabilities strongest in parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.

Further south, states along the Gulf of Mexico and Texas and southern New Mexico are likely to experience drier than average conditions this winter.

NOAA also expects widespread moderate to severe drought to persist across most of the Great Plains and parts of the Rocky Mountains. Drought may develop or worsen across the Southwest and Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, drought conditions are expected to improve — or end — in the Ohio River Valley, Great Lakes region and parts of the U.S. Northwest in Washington, Oregon and Idaho, the center said.