As the dust settles from Israel’s recent military offensive against Iran, analysts and former diplomats say one thing is clear: Israel, for better or worse, dictates events in the Middle East. As its allies wage war on multiple fronts, the United States has been relegated to the role of wingman.
This is an initial change. Whether on the battlefields of Iraq or the presidential retreats at Camp David, the United States has long considered itself a major player in the Middle East, working boldly, if not always successfully, to change the course of the region’s deadly history.
Now, as Israel unleashes attacks against its adversaries — including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and their backer Iran — President Biden finds his influence severely limited. Rather than the grand pacifications or wars of his predecessors, he has often engaged in diplomatic clean-ups.
Some U.S. efforts have shown signs of influence: In response to Iran’s firing of ballistic missiles at Israel earlier this month, Israel heeded U.S. warnings not to strike major nuclear enrichment sites or oil production facilities in Iran.
But ambitious efforts, such as US-led negotiations for a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza, have failed to produce a breakthrough. The United States has yet to propose a comprehensive plan to pull the Middle East back from a catastrophic regional war.
Nor does it appear to have much influence over Israeli leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who despite killing Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar has escalated the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran and continued the military campaign in Gaza.
A junior partner takes over
Mr. Netanyahu’s aim, experts said, is to use the momentum of the October 7 Hamas attacks to completely overwhelm Israel’s enemies. Israel’s defenders see it as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the region’s precarious landscape. Critics say Israel is escalating the conflict without any plan for what will come next.
“The junior partner in the alliance has a better view of the region, and you’re disconnected where the senior partner is trying to respond to events,” said Wally R. Nasr said. Professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “This is not a good place for America.”
Competitors such as China and Russia are taking note of America’s inability to contain Israel or the conflict in the Middle East, Mr. Nasr said. It is President Vladimir V. to crush Ukraine. It could deepen Putin’s resolve or incite Chinese President Xi Jinping against Taiwan.
What’s more, a broader conflict in the region will almost inevitably draw on the United States. It has already sent warships to the Mediterranean to deter Hezbollah and Iran, sent commandos to Israel to hunt down hostages and Hamas leaders, and helped Israel shoot down Iranian missiles.
“The core of the Israelis’ assumption is that in a broader war, the United States will fight,” Mr. Nasr said. “America is sleeping through another protracted conflict in the Middle East.”
US Election Uncertainty
The Middle East conflict is taking place at a time of intense political uncertainty in the United States. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Israel’s retaliatory attack against Iran took place 10 days before the hotly contested presidential election between Trump.
Mrs. Harris has made little light of the Gaza war between himself and President Biden, despite admitting that the White House’s policy of staunch support for Israel caused him problems on the campaign trail.
Mr. Trump, Mr. Netanyahu has faced his own problems since 2020, when Israeli leader Mr. Congratulating Trump on his election victory, Mr. Infuriated Trump. But recent comments and Mr. In a phone call with Netanyahu, Mr Trump offered strong support for Israeli campaigns against Hamas and Hezbollah.
“Biden is trying to stop him,” Mr. Trump told reporters last week that Mr. said when asked about Netanyahu. “He’s trying to hold him back, when he really should have done the opposite.”
Israel’s carefully calibrated attacks on Friday could keep Israel’s options open ahead of the election. A more aggressive strike might have soured relations with the future Harris administration. Mr. If Trump wins, analysts said Israel could take more serious action against Iran, such as targeting energy or nuclear facilities.
Mr. They also said that if Trump is elected, they expect efforts to expand the Abraham Accords, which many Gulf states normalized relations with Israel during the Trump administration. But without an end to the war in Gaza and some hint of a path to a two-state solution for the Palestinians, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to move in Israel’s direction.
Under a President Harris, these analysts say, the United States is more likely to pursue an “integrated approach” to addressing the Israeli-Palestinian problem and Israel’s relations with its Arab and Muslim neighbors. But Mr.
Michael B. Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to the United States, disagreed on the need for a Palestinian state, but Mr. Mr. Netanyahu’s view.
But even after the Oct. 7 attacks, Mr. Oren said.
Conflict as a precursor to peace
Historically, diplomats say, the United States has been able to use upheaval in the Middle East to push for change. The 1973 Yom Kippur War led to the Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt. The first Palestinian intifada during the Clinton administration set the stage for peace talks.
“Certainly, there’s a moment of hope here,” said former US ambassador to Israel and Egypt Daniel C. Kurtzer said. “If you’ve weakened Israel and your three main enemies, you can say to yourself, ‘This is an opportunity to move closer to regional stability and peace.’
Yet what separates the current conflict from previous conflicts is the brutal nature of the Hamas attack on Israel, which has traumatized its people in a way no previous wars have, and uncertain leadership in many major countries, not just the United States.
For example, Iran has responded appropriately to conflict with Israel. It reflects its own succession questions, economic problems and civil unrest, as well as the damage Israel has inflicted on its proxies.
As for Israel, Mr. Netanyahu still faces prosecution on corruption charges, and he rules in a coalition with far-right ministers, some of whom see the Gaza conflict as a pretext to expel Palestinians.
“There’s a vision out there, but it’s not going to work,” said Mr., who teaches at Princeton. Kurtzer said. “It only perpetuates the conflict.”
