PARIS (AP) — French voters face a runoff on July 7 Snap parliamentary election World War II could see the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation – or no majority at all.
Official results show Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally party has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain amid a complicated voting system and political maneuvering.
What happened?
In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally and its allies won about a third of the votes. The New Popular Front Alliance In it, centre-left, green and hard-left forces came second to the president Emmanuel Macron Centrist coalition.
Dozens of candidates who won at least 50% of Sunday’s votes were elected directly. All other races go to a runoff on June 7 involving two or three leading candidates.
Opinion polls suggest that the National Rally will win more seats in the next National Assembly, but it is unclear whether it will secure an absolute majority of 289 out of 577 seats.
The French voting system is not proportional to nationwide support for a party. Assembly members are elected district-wise.
What’s next?
Contestants in the National Rally are scrambling to avoid an absolute majority.
The Left Alliance said it would withdraw its candidates in the third-placed districts to support other candidates against the far-right. Macron’s centrist coalition also said some of its candidates would drop out before the second round to try to prevent a national rally.
That tactic has worked in the past, when Le Pen’s party and its predecessor, the Front National, were seen by many as political buffoons. But now Le Pen’s party has broad and deep support across the country.
Why is the far right on the rise?
Although France has one of the world’s largest economies and is an important diplomatic and military power, many French voters struggle with inflation and low incomes, as well as feeling left behind by globalization.
Le Pen’s party, which blames immigration for many of France’s problems, has tapped into that voter frustration and built a nationwide support network, particularly in small towns and farming communities that Macron and the Paris political class see as out of touch.
What is Coexistence?
If a political force other than the National Rally or his centrist coalition wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint someone from that new majority as prime minister.
In such a situation – known in France as “collaboration” – the government will implement policies that differ from the president’s plan.
France’s modern republic enjoyed three coexistences, last under conservative President Jacques Chirac with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin from 1997 to 2002.
The Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
During the coalition the president is weaker at home, but still has some powers in foreign policy, European affairs, and defense because he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international agreements. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.
Why is it important?
The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France’s two houses. It has the final say in the law-making process over the conservative-dominated Senate.
He added that Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027 He will not step down before the end His tenure. But a weak French president could complicate many issues on the world stage.
During previous coexistences, defense and foreign policy were considered the informal “reserved domain” of the president, who usually found compromises with the prime minister and allowed him to speak with one voice abroad.
Even today, the views of the far-right and left-wing coalition in these areas are quite different from Macron’s approach. Tension during potential symbiosis.
Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority, said he wanted “a coalition prime minister that respects the constitution and the role of the president but does not compromise. We will implement the principles.”
Barthella said as a Prime Minister, I will We oppose sending French troops to Ukraine – An opportunity Macron did not rule out. Bardella also said it would deny the French supply of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets inside Russia.
What happens if there is no majority?
Even if they don’t have an absolute majority, the president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly — which is the case with Macron’s own centrist coalition from 2022.
However, the National Rally has already said it rejects such an option because a coalition of other political parties would mean a far-right government could soon be toppled by a no-confidence vote.
The president may try to build a broad coalition from left to right, which seems unlikely due to political differences.
Another option is to appoint a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, but which must be approved by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government will mostly deal with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.
If political talks take longer between summer vacation and July 26-Aug. 11 Olympics in ParisMacron’s centrist government could form an interim government pending further decisions.
