UK says new Russian offensive in Ukraine unlikely to make progress

KYIV, Jan. 31 (Reuters) – A major Russian force has advanced hundreds of meters this week in a major new offensive on a Ukrainian-held stronghold in southeastern Ukraine, although significant progress there is unlikely, Britain said on Tuesday.

Russian officials said the advance had gained a foothold in the coal-mining town of Wuhleder. Cave acknowledges the fierce fighting there, but says he has so far beaten off the push while inflicting heavy losses on the attackers.

In an intelligence update providing rare battlefield details, the British ministry said Russia would attack the city with at least a brigade-sized force, typically several thousand troops with full-scale capabilities.

So far, the Russians may have advanced several hundred meters from the south beyond the Kashlahach River, which has marked the front line for months. The small river flows on the edge of the town of Pavlivka, about two kilometers south of Wuhleder.

“There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in this sector. However, it is unlikely that Russia will have enough uncommitted troops in the region to make operationally significant progress.”

It said Russian commanders were trying to create a new axis of advance to divert Ukrainian forces from the city of Baghmut, which has been the main focus of Russia’s offensive for months.

Reuters could not independently confirm the situation in the region.

Wuhleder is located at the southern tip of the eastern part of Ukraine, overlooking the railway lines that supply Russian forces at the near southern tip. Ukraine has repelled several Russian attacks on the city since the war began eleven months ago.

The Russian offensive there comes after Moscow has made significant advances around Bagmut in the past two weeks, its biggest gains since Ukraine retook large swaths of territory in the second half of 2022. First place in November.

Military experts say Moscow is determined to succeed in Ukraine in the coming months, before Kyiv receives hundreds of newly pledged Western tanks and armored vehicles for a counteroffensive to recapture the occupied territory this year.

Pakmut, a city once home to 100,000 people, looks increasingly vulnerable after Russia seized the salt-mining town of Soledar to its north a week ago. Moscow says it has made significant additional gains in the northern and southern suburbs of Pakmut; Kyiv says the city itself is not yet in danger of falling, but the fighting there is tough.

Revenge

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described Russia’s offensive in the east as an attempt to “revenge” its earlier losses.

“And I don’t think they will be able to provide their community with a definitive positive outcome to the attack. I have confidence in our military. We will stop and destroy them bit by bit and prepare our big counterattack,” he said. said on Monday.

Russian offensives in recent weeks have come at great cost, initially relying mostly on mercenaries, including thousands of criminals recruited from Russian prisons and sent into battle in human waves without proper training or equipment.

But Russia’s call-up of hundreds of thousands of reservists late last year means Moscow is now able to rebuild regular army units that were depleted or depleted before the war.

A British Ministry of Defense statement said the attack on Wuhledar was led by a unit of Russian naval infantry, which tried unsuccessfully to storm the town in November.

F-16: Biden says no

Since winning a Western commitment to the tanks after months of lobbying, Kyiv has pressed ahead with additional requests for weapons, including calls for jet fighters such as US F-16s. Neither side could gain control of the skies over Ukraine.

The West has so far refused to send weapons that could be used to strike deep into Russia, a line countries still do not want to cross. Asked by reporters at the White House on Monday whether Washington would send F-16s, US President Joe Biden replied, “No”.

However, Ukraine remains hopeful. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov was due to meet President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Tuesday and told reporters in The Hague on Monday that “nothing is excluded by definition” when it comes to military aid.

Macron said any move to send the jets would depend on factors including the need to avoid escalation and a guarantee that the aircraft “will not touch Russian soil”.

Asked by a reporter before Biden spoke, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki did not rule out supplying F-16s to neighboring Ukraine.

In comments posted on his website, Morawiecki said such an exchange would take place “in full coordination” with NATO countries. Poland has long aggressively pushed for Western military support for Ukraine.

Reuters Bureau reporting by Peter Graff; Editing by Frank Jack Daniel

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